Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Panthers 1 | Flyers 2: Can Florida Still Get In? (Yes)

Florida's playoff hopes were dealt a serious blow tonight as the Cats lost to Philadelphia while the Rangers overcame the Canadiens and pulled back to two points ahead of the Panthers - with two games to play.

It's worth noting that the Panthers played a good game, they simply could not finish on their chances. Vokoun allowed a soft goal to give the Flyers the lead, but he said something about Craig Anderson after the 3-1 loss to Atlanta that is no less true tonight:
Andy didn't deserve to come out. We didn't score any goals and we lost.

He let in a goal that he will desperately want back, but he also kept quite a few out and as has been true of the Panthers' inconsistent offense this season, the goalies will either get a ton of help from the offense, or none at all.

No matter what, the Panthers have dug themselves quite a hole here. So, cross your fingers.


This next bit might not read clearly. In looking back at it now, having typed it up a minute ago, I noticed that I started to simply type stream of thought. But, I tried to keep it clear. (I added colours so now it looks a little less cluttered. If the record is in red, Florida can't catch the team. If it's green, there is a possibility.)

Anyway, it's just a quick overview of the best-case scenarios for getting the Cats in to the playoffs, based on each possible outcome for the Rangers and Canadiens on the schedule.


New York's maximum point total (based on two remaining games): 95
Florida's maximum point total (based on two remaining games): 93

New York (Current: 91)

2-0-0: (95 points) Florida can not catch.
1-0-1: (94 points) Florida can not catch.
1-1-0: (93 points) Even going 2-0, Florida would have 41 wins to New York's 42. No good.
0-0-2: (93 points) Florida has to win both games. Both teams have 41 wins in this scenario, forcing a second tiebreaker (season series). Florida won the series 3-0-1. Florida passes New York.
0-1-1: (92 points) Florida has to win both games, finishing one point ahead of New York.
0-2-0: (91 points) Florida has to pick up a minimum of three points (2-0-0, 1-0-1). One regulation loss (1-1-0, 0-1-1) and New York is in.

So to summarize, Florida can not lose in regulation and while they really should be focusing on winning both games, they also have to win at least one and must pick up at least one point in the other game.

Montreal's maximum point total (based on two remaining games): 96
Florida's maximum point total (based on two remaining games): 93

Montreal (Current: 92)

2-0-0: (96 points) Florida can't catch.
1-0-1: (95 points) Florida can't catch.
1-1-0: (94 points) Florida can't catch.
0-0-2: (94 points) Florida can't catch.
0-1-1: (93 points) Even if Florida won both games, both teams would have 41 wins and 93 points. Montreal won the season series, 2-1-1. Florida would not make it.
0-2-0: (92 points) Florida must win both games. Three points would result in a tie and Montreal would win through tiebreaker. Only a 2-0-0 record gets Florida in, in this scenario.

What if Montreal and New York both went 0-2-0 and Florida won out?

Well, then Florida would be the seventh seed, the Canadiens would be eighth and the Rangers would be out. The Cats would face the Washington Capitals in the first round.

There's still hope, albeit slim, for the Panthers to break through and get in there, so as hard as it may be, don't write these guys off just yet.

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